655,000 or 48,000 Iraqi deaths

differing views (Thimk), measures (scientific), Updates, sciencing Comments Off

Here is the original article.

Here is how one newspaper headlined it—
Survey says 600,000 have died in Iraq war
By Clive Cookson, Science Editor, and Steve Negus, Iraq Correspondent

Financial Times
Published: October 11 2006 17:37 | Last updated: October 11 2006 17:37

or

Disputed study claims 655,000 Iraqi deaths
POSTED: 2:57 a.m. EDT, October 11, 2006 CNN

or

Enormous death toll of Iraq invasion revealed
11 October 2006, NewScientist.com news service, Debora MacKenzie

or

One in 40 Iraqis ‘killed since invasion’
US and Britain reject journal’s finding that death toll has topped 650,000

Sarah Boseley, health editor, Thursday October 12, 2006, The Guardian

or

Iraq casualty figures open up new battleground
By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

“The possibility of introducing bias in any kind of survey is real, and you spend more time designing the survey to eliminate the sources of bias then actually carrying it out,” he says. “One of the real risks in this is that people report deaths that don’t occur, so we did ask for death certificates. And in 92 percent of cases, they were provided.”

To be sure, the researchers of the Lancet study says possible errors leave a range between a low of 392,979 additional deaths and a high of 942,636. The 601,000 figure is the median.

The commonly accepted numbers until now have been much lower than Lancet surveys. The Iraq Body Count, a website that tracks civilian deaths in the war by compiling data from news reports, estimates 48,000 deaths have been reported in the media, while the Iraq Index sponsored by the Brookings Institution in Washington has counted 61,000 civilian deaths. President Bush estimated 30,000 civilian deaths late last year.

Fortunately,

presents some the background to the current study.

The purpose in presenting this here is to examine the science, the evidence.

What about the science? It doesn’t take much reflection to see that estimating mortality from an invasion with a disastrous and chaotic aftermath is no simple matter.

The Reveres are pretty good at asking the questions you should be asking of medical or health studies. What else could account for the results? If the alternatives are not feasible, then the study has greater validity, whether or not we “like” the results.

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Swans and planes

birds, measures (scientific), H5N1 Comments Off

two from Science in the News, an E-mail newsletter from Sigma Xi, mentioned previously as a source especially for science teachers (ΣΧ FYI for Sci TEK teachers, linked in sidebar) Thought experiments — Forum Debate Rights in a Pandemic

    swan tagbird.190.650

Probing the Mysterious Migration of Swans Suspected in Spread of Avian Flu
From The New York Times (Registration Required)

Tracking avian flu sometimes comes down to moves that have a lot of slapstick potential, like sprinting down a muddy Mongolian beach trying to tackle a scared but temporarily flightless swan.

Read the rest of this entry »

2005 Census Stats Released

demography, measures (scientific), info sources Comments Off

2005 American Community Survey (ACS) data are now being released. The 2005 ACS data include demographic and social information such as race, Hispanic origin, age, education, marital status, grandparents as caregivers, veterans, disability status and U.S. citizenship. The data is available for nearly 7,000 areas, including all congressional districts and counties, cities and American Indian/Alaska native areas of 65,000 population or more.

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

reference from BHIC

http://library.med.utah.edu/blogs/BHIC/ archives/cat_websites.html#001737

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

measures (scientific), Updates, science sources, H5N1 Comments Off

2003 0304, 0304 cases, deaths
2004 46, 32
2005 95, 41
2006 8990, 59 60

Total to date 233 235135137

revised 2006aug08

The updates are too many. Check the page at

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/en/

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/ country/cases_table_2006_08_07/en/index.html


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Where is … duckie invasion

birds, measures (scientific), maps 1 Comment »

219-24RubberDuckyGraphic

Published: July 24, 2006 

http://tinyurl.com/rwplc
Scientists of tub toy fame will tell their tale in Sitka
BEACHCOMBERS FAIR: Flotsam revealed much about ocean currents.
By KATE CHENEY DAVIDSON, Anchorage Daily News, Published: July 24, 2006

What he knew in 1918 could save millions of lives today

measures (scientific), preparedness, history, H5N1 Comments Off

This is an interesting read about a previous pandemic of avian influenza. Note the impact of behavioral change on the epidemiology of the disease and why the disease would affect people differently in St Louis from Philadelphia.

It is a good example of why histories from that era (and later pandemics like the 1960s out here) are so important to record, study, and learn from. I encourage every reader to collect those stories. And to compare what is learned from the past with contemporary planning
Read the rest of this entry »

NZ research on birdflu spread

birds, measures (scientific), sciencing, H5N1, public involvement Comments Off

This is a nice experiment. The information is needed in the overall understanding of pandemic infections and of emerging infections. People are part of the environment, but we mediate our interactions through culture. In the H5N1 example, we domesticate waterfowl and therefore provide a new natural pathway. This experiment is designed to understand the characteristics of that pathway.

[Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like the other participants in the research have been included in its design (public involvement) which means that only parts of the study have been thought through. For example, sometimes “subjects” want to be identified in reports. They contribute as much as the other experts to the success of the questions asked.]

(see if you can provide alternative hypotheses to test, that is, what other reasons may account for finding antibodies, the record of exposure, or for not finding antibodies?)
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Complex Bird Flu Testing summary

birds, measures (scientific), H5N1 1 Comment »

Read Ann Potempa’s article to find out where the swabbing begins.
Experts will test birds for signs of avian flu
and read
Sampling Bird Cloaca

USDA Madison, Wisconsin laboratory
http://www.madison.com/tct/news/index.php?ntid=84869&ntpid=0
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Jay Hammond formula for evaluating development

measures (scientific) Comments Off
“a simple formula for calculating the value of a development.

‘Is it environmentally sound? Does it pay its own way? And do the people want it?

‘Because he subjected proposals to those three tests, sometimes he made decisions that were popular, sometimes not,’ she said.”

Former Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer, a Democrat, spent six of her first years in Alaska working in Republican Hammond’s Juneau office, first as his legislative liaison and later as head of his Office of Policy Development and Planning.

Link: http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/6777146p-6666290c.html

RE: Google news proxy

measures (scientific), news sources, haz com Comments Off

RE: Google news proxy this was published today–

More News Outlets, Fewer Stories: New Media ‘Paradox’
By James Rainey, Times Staff Writer March 13, 2006

A “new paradox of journalism” has emerged in which the number of news outlets continues to grow, yet the number of stories covered and the depth of many reports is decreasing, according to an annual review of the news business being released today by a watchdog group.

Read the rest of this entry »

Richest cities in the U.S. (Bethel)

measures (scientific) Comments Off

Forbes.com issued a list of America’s 10 richest cities last week and Anchorage is No. 2. Really.

It’s based on census median household income figures, and Anchorage is second only to San Jose, Calif. Los Angeles and New York don’t make it over the threshold.
….
Ear doesn’t care about why. It’s just nice to be at the top of a list in some category other than violence and drunkenness. Here are the top five.

Median HH income / Median home cost

1. San Jose: $71,765 / $623,000

2. Anchorage: $61,595 / $294,374

3. San Francisco: $60,031 / $726,900

Bethel (2000) $57,321 / $146,600 (Median Family Income: $62,431)

4. Virginia Beach: $55,781 / $192,000

5. San Diego: $51,382 / $605,600

Google news proxy measure — H5N1 public involvement

measures (scientific), news sources, sciencing, H5N1, public involvement 1 Comment »

This Googled search was an effort to measure the types of information, and source, for use in disaster planning. So far, as mentioned in another post,

[link to come]

the birds count for more than the people in terms of enabling us to assess the risk and the resources for mitigating our particular risk.

The second day’s pickup of Anne Sutton’s article is leaning a bit more to the sensational presentation. I like the image Alfred Hitchcock USA Today used–

Another interesting thing to notice is that wire stories don’t always credit the original author; that not all printed versions include the entire wire version; some editors do add value to the story by providing links to US FWS or to others for the reader to follow up. And Sunday in the US is news hungry for the fat paper day.


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Kuskokwim flu, 1:30 AKT, 11 Mar 2006 Results of about 67 for kuskokwim flu
Alaska Villagers to Help Bird Flu Survey
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Newsday, NY - 3 hours ago
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Washington Post, United States - 3 hours ago
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San Jose Mercury News, USA - 3 hours ago
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KDKA, PA - 1 hour ago
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CBS 13, CA - 1 hour ago
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CBS 3, PA - 1 hour ago
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Wilkes Barre Times-Leader, PA - 3 hours ago
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Penn Live, PA - 3 hours ago
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Penn Live, PA - 3 hours ago
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Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, GA - 3 hours ago
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Bradenton Herald, United States - 3 hours ago
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Contra Costa Times, CA - 3 hours ago
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MLive.com, MI - 3 hours ago
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The State, SC - 3 hours ago
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Fort Worth Star Telegram, TX - 3 hours ago
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Kentucky.com, KY - 3 hours ago
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Duluth News Tribune, MN - 3 hours ago
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Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, IN - 3 hours ago
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WRAL.com, NC - 3 hours ago
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Monterey County Herald, CA - 3 hours ago
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by the millions in the surrounding delta of the mighty Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers - a So far, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, found in migratory birds in
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Centre Daily Times, PA - 3 hours ago
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Biloxi Sun Herald, USA - 3 hours ago
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Bird watchers get windfall
Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, AK - Mar 9, 2006
But there is debate about how the flu is spreading in Alaska will focus on 22 species of birds and sampling will largely take place in Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, on
Hunters watch for sick birds
Juneau Empire (subscription), AK - Mar 5, 2006
by the millions in the surrounding delta of the mighty Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers - a So far, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, found in migratory birds in
Alaskan villagers have key role
Arizona Daily Star, AZ - Mar 4, 2006
and Kuskokwim rivers. It’s considered the crossroads for birds migrating between Asia and North America. So far, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, found in
Alaska study links bad plumbing, disease
United Press International - Feb 27, 2006
the Centers for Disease Control examined 49 villages in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in He said that the infection rates for pneumonia and flu were three times as

12mar2006
Alaska Villagers to Help Bird Flu Survey
Houston Chronicle, United States - Mar 11, 2006
By ANNE SUTTON Associated Press Writer. JUNEAU, Alaska He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that hasn’t stopped James Active Jr.
EXPECTING TROUBLE: DELTA IS GATEWAY FOR ASIAN BIRDS A Bounty and a
Winston-Salem Journal, NC - 21 hours ago
He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that hasn’t stopped James Active Jr. from worrying about bird flu on its march around the world.
Alaska villagers to help bird flu survey
USA Today - Mar 11, 2006
JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that hasn’t stopped James Active Jr. from
Alaska Villagers to Help Bird Flu Survey
CBS News - Mar 11, 2006
(AP) He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that hasn’t stopped James Active Jr. from worrying about bird
Alaska Villagers to Help Bird Flu Survey
ABC News - Mar 11, 2006
By ANNE SUTTON. JUNEAU, Alaska Mar 11, 2006 (AP) He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that hasn’t stopped James Active Jr.
Alaska Villagers to Help Bird Flu Survey
WTOP, D.C. - Mar 11, 2006
By ANNE SUTTON Associated Press Writer. JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) - He lives in one of the most remote areas of North America, but that

Local alcohol prohibition, police presence and serious injury in isolated Alaska Native villages

demography, tribal governments, measures (scientific), alcohol 3 Comments »

Reference Number: DSW2201, Year of Publication: 2006
Authors: Gruenewald, Paul; Wood, Darryl
Keywords: Alcohol Regulation, Injury, Native Americans

Citation: Wood, D.S. and Gruenewald, P.J. “Local alcohol prohibition, police presence and serious injury in isolated Alaska Native villages,” Addiction, 101(3):393-403, March 2006.

Abstract:

Aims: To consider the effects of alcohol prohibition and police presence upon serious injury in isolated Alaska Native villages.

Design: We compared rates of injury attributed to assault, self-harm, motor vehicle collisions and ‘other causes’ between villages with or without local prohibition and between villages with or without local police. Negative binomial regression was used to assess the relative effects of prohibition and police presence upon serious injury rates net of potential confounders.

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