Yukon Kuskokwim Nushagak science

RE: Villagers living in bird flu’s flight path

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I mentioned this earlier

• Where is… Bethel water? - http://ykalaska.uniblogs.org/?p=277

but here is a release of information from a different source. I can’t yet find the photos.

In the meantime, here are illustrations from the Kuskokwim Delta (click on the images to go to where you can see larger sizes.)

2005

2006

2002

2006

• Where is… 1978 mouth of Kuskokwim River -
  http://ykalaska.uniblogs.org/?p=230

• Where is Y-K Alaska (NASA) -
  http://ykalaska.uniblogs.org/?p=35

• Where is Y-K Alaska (Google map) -
  http://ykalaska.uniblogs.org/?p=36

• http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-10/uoaf-sps101206.php

Shrinking ponds signal warmer, dryer Alaska
50 years of remotely sensed images show dramatic change

FAIRBANKS, Alaska–A first-of-its kind analysis of fifty years of remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 shows a dramatic reduction in the size and number of more than 10,000 ponds in Alaska. The analysis, by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists and published this week in the Journal of Geophysical Research, indicates that these landscape-level changes in arctic ponds are associated with recent climate warming in Alaska and may have profound effects on climate and wildlife.

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased permafrost thawing, an increase in water loss due to evaporation from open water and transpiration from vegetation, and yet no substantial change in precipitation.

The shrinking of these closed-basin ponds may be indicative of widespread lowering of the water table throughout low-lying landscapes in Interior Alaska, write the authors. A lowered water table negatively affects the ability of wetlands to regulate climate because it enhances the release of carbon dioxide by exposing soil carbon to aerobic decomposition.

“Alaska is important in terms of waterfowl production and if you have a lowering of the water table that could have a potentially huge impact on waterfowl production,” …

“No one has done a state water-body inventory of this magnitude,”said Brian Riordan, lead author and data manager for the Bonanza CreekLong-Term Ecological Research program at UAF. “It will allow landmanagers to stop speculating about possible water body loss and begin to address the implications of this loss.”

Using black and white aerial photographs from the 1950s, color infrared aerial photographs from 1978-1982, and digital images from the Landsat satellite from 1999-2002, Riordan outlined each pond by hand. …

The main study area was the subarctic boreal region of Interior Alaska, which spans more than 5 million square kilometers bounded on the north by the Brooks Range and on the south by the Alaska Range. To contrast the semi-arid, subarctic sites of discontinuous permafrost in Interior Alaska, the authors also selected a study area in the Arctic Coastal Plain where the temperatures are much colder, the growing season much shorter, and the permafrost is continuous, and a more maritime site south of the Alaska Range.

All ponds in the study regions in subarctic Alaska showed a reduction in area of between 4 and 31 percent, with most of the change occurring since the 1970s. The ponds in the Arctic Coastal Plain showed negligible change….

Blogged with Flock

but Flock has problems with multiple posts while claiming errors. I had to tidy up by hand.

Technorati Tags: global+warming, tundra, permafrost, drought, wetlands, UAF, Alaska
Site Search Tags: global+warming, tundra, permafrost, drought, wetlands, UAF, Alaska

Science 25 August 2006: Vol. 313. no. 5790, pp. 1088 - 1090
DOI: 10.1126/science.313.5790.1088

• http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5790/1088

Desalination Freshens Up, by Robert F. Service
Efforts to provide clean, fresh water for the world’s inhabitants seem to be moving in the wrong direction. According to the World Health Organization, 1 billion people do not have access to clean, piped water. A World Resources Institute analysis adds that 2.3 billion people–41% of Earth’s population–live in water-stressed areas, a number expected to climb to 3.5 billion by 2025. To make matters worse, global population is rising by 80 million a year, and with it the demand for new sources of fresh water.

missing freshwater

The Yukon-Kuskowkim Rivers Delta, in the Bethel area, is a semi-arid region with generally 15 inches or less of precipitation per year. When last I checked, Bethel has about as much precipitation as Los Alamos, New Mexico in the high “desert”, including snow (54 inches).

The Kuskokwim Delta is aggrading (sinking or eroding away) instead of accreting (gaining sediment and area) as is the Yukon Delta. Unfortunately, I cannot find on-line the specific data and reports for the accretion or degrading status, nor analyses of possible causes. (If a reader knows this, please let the rest of us know.)

For at least a decade, the tundra ponds on the Kuskowkim delta have been disappearing—

• they may be sinking (the permafrost holding them up may be disappearing. Last year nearby ponds look like a bathtub with the plug pulled)
• the land may be rising (but we haven’t had the weight of glaciers above us in the past)
• the pattern of precipitation may have changed (more occurs in warmer months which may result in more evaporation)
• the amount of precipitation may have decreased
• people use much more water (especially on piped systems)
• there are many more people using water
• sea level may be changing (fresh water floats on top of salt water)

No matter the cause, we do not seem to have now, and will likely not have for the next generation, sufficient water clean enough for essential uses.

Declan has updated his mapping to use new features in Google maps. [ previously noted here Google Earth maps of avian flu spread]

My dial-up won’t handle it, but should be interesting for others. Be sure to follow his directions.

• http://declanbutler.info/blog/?p=58 The spread of avian flu with time; new maps exploiting Google Earth’s time series function

500mi@BET, 1000mi@BET, 1500@BET, 2500@BET Radius in miles from Bethel airport.

Maps generated by the
Great Circle Mapper -
copyright © Karl L. Swartz.

Site Search Tags: Great+Circle, Bethel, Alaska, BET

Kind of. At least one can find the totals, after 4 months.

http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/

Read the rest of this entry »

“This SAR image is of the Kuskokwim River delta, Western Alaska. It was taken by Seasat on July 13, 1978. The patterns are formed by river water flowing around sand bars. The pock-marked land is covered by small permafrost lakes.”

See the larger image here

http://southport.jpl.nasa.gov/polar/sarimages.html

I’ve always found this is a fascinating image. Kongiganak and Kwigillingok can be seen.

Published: July 24, 2006 

http://tinyurl.com/rwplc
Scientists of tub toy fame will tell their tale in Sitka
BEACHCOMBERS FAIR: Flotsam revealed much about ocean currents.
By KATE CHENEY DAVIDSON, Anchorage Daily News, Published: July 24, 2006

Some mapping software requires decimal longitude and latitude. GPSvisualizer.com will provide those calculations, as well. I don’t think the precision from street level is very tight on some of these locations (airport, zipcode, city name)

Quick Geocoder

You entered: BET
The airport database found:

ICAO PABE
IATA BET
Airport Name Bethel
City Bethel
State AK
Country United States
Latitude 60.77972222
Longitude -161.8377778
Coordinates
60.77972222, -161.8377778
N60°46.783333, W161°50.266668
Elevation 37 m (121 ft)”

Site Search Tags: maps, Bethel, gpsvisualizer

Read the rest of this entry »

datetime=”2006-10-09 T05:49:12+00:00 Distance between 41:16:00N 129:06:00E (Gilju in Hamgyong province, North Korea) and Bethel, Alaska, United States, as the fallout flies:

3122 miles (5024 km) (2713 nautical miles)

Initial heading from 41:16:00N 129:06:00E to Bethel: northeast (40.2 degrees)
Initial heading from Bethel to 41:16:00N 129:06:00E: west (277.2 degrees)

View larger map here

http://tinyurl.com/hhxnw

Read the story here–

http://tinyurl.com/ezf37
A warhead found in Alaska? The report’s longevity illustrates the uncertainty and fear.
By Barbara Demick, Times Staff Writer, July 7, 2006

The North Koreans have been trying to develop a multistage missile capable of reaching the United States since at least the early 1990s…

Debris was strewn thousands of miles from the launch site, leading to speculation that the range was longer than it actually was….

Site Search Tags: maps, Bethel, news

Maps are one of those basic resources for identifying problems and their solutions, whether cognitive maps or tangible maps. An understanding of their strengths and limitations ought to be elementary.

From the always excellent source, The Scout Report, Copyright Internet Scout Project 1994-2006. http://scout.wisc.edu/
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David Horsey’s map from: At the Super Bowl -

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20060206/horsey_superbowl.jpg

Is a Russian peninsula really part of North America?
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-05/uow-iar050206.php

Here is the usual depiction of the United States, from

http://www.census.gov/

(Alaska as US Minor Outlying Island)

Here is the first one I’ve seen with Alaska and Hawai’i is approximately correct alignment with regard to the other states.
(from http://www.thefire.org/)

Guess where the hub of Alaska is? Guess where Alaska Air headquarters is?

http://www.alaskaair.com/www2/destinations/RouteMap_FullSize.asp

Click on image to enlarge map to show distance in air miles to nearest hospital.

This is a map once used by YKHC to show time to the nearest hospital, on a good day (click to enlarge)

Palomar Mountain, CA, May 09, 2006 –(PR.COM)– MobiusPortal.com has had its global map of bird flu infections under test for almost 6 months. It is ready for a ‘real-word’ simulated excercise.

They have created the following scenario:

A Harlequin Duck, migrated from Alaska, infects a wild boar at Lake Sonoma, California. H5N1 mutates within that pig. A hunter, that kills that pig, is then infected with this virulent mutation.
…
Starting May 18th, anyone in the world can play a role to provide their spin on the resultant pandemic. …

There is no script: The viewers will build their own pandemic and responses.

Francis Hemsher, CEO of MobiusPortal.com, … We are vulnerable, yet hopeful, that the final result will allow many to participate on an experiental level, to a situation that is scary, but if honestly addressed, can be helpful if a pandemic were to occur.”

The simulation will begin from the current global map as shown at:
http://www.mobiusPortal.com/AvianFlu/viewport_af.asp

###”
http://www.pr.com/press-release/10429

The company designs on-line data imagery. Only MS Internet Explorer can be used for the game. There is a medieval children’s “nursery rhyme” on the start page (allusion to the Black Death). “2006-06-08T20:00:46+00:00″ I never could get the game to work on my dial-up system.

Their other examples are

Baseball Game This is a baseball game in progress. It includes pitch placement, speed, and type. The players’ positions and reactions for each play are recorded. Each hit and its trajectory are shown.

HVAC System An example of monitoring Commercial Building Systems. It displays, temperatures, humidity, air flows, and damper postion, along with alarm conditions. Sensor outputs are converted to XML as a live data-feed into the system image.

California Wildfire Based on an actual fire: It shows response agency actions, the scope of fire area, plus environmental variables that impact the spread of the fire.

Avian Flu Surveillance A global map showing the current spread of the bird flu across Asia and Europe. It includes real-time reports from possible infected areas; plus updates to confirmed locations, human infection, and death statistics.

Several years ago I ran across http://www.indo.com/distance/ which computes the distance quickly between any two points on earth. I looked for a long time to find something similar to get the great circle distances. I stumbled across great circle maps when a lecturer at the Univ of Auckland. It was amazing to me (and especially to my college students) just how far away “home” (the UK) was and how close “exotic” places were (Indonesia, Asia, Antarctica). It also turned out that the other side of the world from Wellington NZ was Madrid Spain.

Anyway–I finally located this site. It doesn’t work by listing everything within a certain radius, but at least one can draw a radius and see what is nearby.

400 and 1000 miles from Bethel. Where else in the US can one be a 1000 miles from the nearest state capitol?

http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/index.html

GPS Visualizer is a free, easy-to-use online utility that creates maps and profiles from GPS data (tracks and waypoints), street addresses, or simple coordinates. Use it to see where you’ve been, plan where you’re going, or visualize geographic data (business locations, events, customers, real estate, etc.).

Distance between Bethel, Alaska, United States and Juneau, Alaska, United States, as the crow flies:

977 miles (1572 km) (849 nautical miles)

Initial heading from Bethel to Juneau: east (87.5 degrees)
Initial heading from Juneau to Bethel: west-northwest (291.4 degrees)
http://www.indo.com/distance/

"This SeaWiFS view of Alaska (upper right) and the Bering Sea (center), collected on April 13, 2002, reveals an unmistakable wave of dust (brownish pixels) traveling southward along Alaska’s western coastline and over the Aleutian Island chain. The dust, probably from East Asia, is easily distinguished from the bright white clouds (lower left) and the snow and ice covered surfaces on and around Alaska."
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=2645

NetWatch is a page in the weekly Science journal with picks of Internet science sites. The sites mentioned here are not H5N1 specific but would be useful for those following up on birds and migrations. Pam

Science 24 September 2004:Vol. 305. no. 5692, p. 1881
DOI: 10.1126/science.305.5692.1881c
Read the rest of this entry »

News story with maps and quick time animation
“Virtual Pandemic: 90 Days to Infect Entire U.S.”

This is a simulation of the transmissibility of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus which evolves to make the jump to humans. All simulations depend on their conditions set by the modellers (programmers). Therefore, Alaska and Hawai’i aren’t shown as red or yellow—not because we are invincible but because we weren’t included.

from the
LANS LLC press release Read the rest of this entry »

This is the famous National Geographic map, used by the US District Court, to try to give some familiar context to the distances in Alaska. The Yukon Kuskokwim delta is about western Kansas / eastern Colorado.

The bartailed godwit will be sampled this spring.

The East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) stretches from central Siberia to Alaska, down through Asia and across the Pacific to Australia and New Zealand. Holding around 7 million shorebirds, it is one of the smaller of the world’s major flyways, but is poorly known and highly threatened through reclamation on the staging grounds. This site highlights the research into the biology of migratory shorebirds being undertaken at the southern end of the flyway, in New Zealand….

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http://declanbutler.info/Flumaps1/avianflu.html

Google Earth maps of avian flu spread put together by Declan Butler. He’s a journalist with Nature magazine, an international scientific journal similar to Science. I don’t have a computer new enough or an Internet connection fast enough to try these maps out, but most schools should be able to. He explains how he developed these maps. He also has links to other H5N1 maps.

Blog: http://declanbutler.info/blog/
Nature: http://www.nature.com